Go back to Windows or stay with Ubuntu?

Points for Windows: It’s a better package than Linux by 5 to 10 years. And has better software all around. Far cheaper in time. Supports more hardware. Better custom keyboard configuration. 4DOS. Semware TSE Windows is better than the current Linux beta.

Points for Linux: Ubuntu/Debian package manager system. Upgradable. Cloneable. Portable. Better file system. Cheaper in dollars. ssh server built in. Web server built in. Mail system built in. Text configuration and other attributes make it much better for hourly, daily, weekly, chug, chug, production jobs. Does not re-boot on its own.

The point may be moot. In due time either will be sitting in a closet.

And the answer is:

I figured it would be quicker to simply move the 3 hard drives from “spring” to “zoot”, the new machine. … … … And so the usual Linux saga began. It is now 7 hours later and many things are broken.

First, as expected, Linux could not handle the on-board ATI video. Two big monitors had barely readable pop-ups saying something on the order of “Failure”.

Net searches. Lots of time. Much confusion. In the end, it seemed like a better thing to do would be to toss in the extra Nvidia board. The extra was, I had always thought, a dupe of the one in spring. I’d made sure the machine’s spec’s allowed the board.

Well. Windows was not happy. Required a couple of scary reboots. And in the end, it had a bit different appearance and slower video. And audio was bogus. Sped up. And video had weird artifacts. Sped up animations. But both monitors came up in the same configuration they had with the motherboard ATI 3100.

So, back to Linux. I did several magical commands, but finally realized that my xorg.conf file was bogus from the ATI follies. Restoring it got the desktop up. Window movement was slow. Audio worked.

DNS stopped working during all this for no reason. I added the mvdomain dns server’s IP address to resolv.conf and would not be surprised if some program got rid of it. Somehow, networking decided to create yet another eth# interface – 4 this time. At least it had the correct, fixed IP address, though it’s hard to figure out how it got it.

Meanwhile, also during all this, Grub worked about once in 5 times. Error 18. Old error for old disks and old BIOS’s. During the video board follies, the ZT hard disk with Windows on it disappeared from BIOS’s list. Gone. A power cycle and some futzing brought it back. Probably the internal video needed to be explicitly disabled. Or something. Anyway, after I did that – and turned around and touched my nose with my left hand 3 times – Express Gate came back (it had died, too) and the disk came back.

All in all, this has been pretty much what it always is when you try to slightly alter a PC.

Oh. Did I mention that the machine’s four 3″ disk slots are really only three slots, unless you pull the CPU heatsink and fan. I started to do that before an imaginary helper slapped my face and I said, “Thanks. I needed that.” I simply bent some sheet metal.

So. 6 AM and back to breaking things. Gotta see if I can get the machine working with ATI. This Nvidia video is pretty bad. It takes most of one of the four cores just to paint System Monitor’s line. And Google Earth is black.

Long time later: All works with ATI on motherboard. Unfortunately, no particular method to make it work. Read some obscure web site that told how to downloaded and install ATI’s latest driver. Did several reboots and some things outside their “Control Panel”. Like most such software, their “Control Panel” is ragged. Must be run, sudo. Menu choice for doing so doesn’t work, of course. Must be run from command line by a secret name, “sudo amdcccle“. The chief outside program was aticonfig, a grabbag program. The chief outside task was to swap the monitor cables. Sure, taking 4 hours or so for video might seem excessive, but in fairness to Ubuntu, I didn’t get Win7 working well with the Nvidia board. I only tried for about 10 minutes, though. That’s enough time to spend on Windows troubles. It’s broken if it doesn’t work. With Linux, you’ve got to pour 12 hours in to something before you know it’s busted.

ZT update: The USB and card reader slots seem to be upside down. It took a second to find out why an SD card didn’t fit in the slot. And, there’s no excuse for the front panel USB being flipped. USB is troublesome enough with respect to orientation.

ZT update: When checking the specs on this box before buying it I completely forgot the little 400 gig music disk. Luckily, the ZT’s Asus motherboard had an IDE/ATA plug. The BIOS sure wanted to boot off the IDE drive, but all worked out in the end.

Porting:

One of Linux’s “killer apps” is that it can be moved to new hardware. “asuka”, A.K.A. “www.tranzoa.*” has roots back in the 90’s. This move of “spring” to a new box was not without troubles. But let’s put it in perspective. As a practical matter, moving to a new Windows means you start from scratch and reinstall everything you use. And the OS jump is generally through hyperspace. Moving a Linux box should be quick and easy. And has been for me several times.

Not this time.

Networking took an hour or so to get working reliably. In the end, I tossed the Ubuntu network manager entirely. That thing doesn’t work. And the horrid Gnome applet just makes it worse. Ubuntu would cut the distance it is behind Windows by half if networking, USB and video worked.

I am hoping USB2 works on the new box. I did use the built in SD card reader today – a good sign.

VMWare noticed that the host PC changed. I told it to “Move” the VMs, both XP and Karmic 32. Eventually, after VMWare zapped the VM around the screen like a jack rabbit, the Ubuntu Karmic 32 guest settled down to be OK. Full screen doesn’t work any more. The full screen “window” is put on the wrong monitor and there doesn’t seem to be a way to get it right. In full-screen, Windows XP stole the mouse focus and would not let go. Luckily it would not see the keyboard so ALT F4 saved the day. I’ll simply have to avoid going full screen. Sad. The Windows screen automatically scales to the window size, so desktop icons shuffle around making the VM pretty ugly. Now that Semware’s TSE almost runs under Linux there’s a lot less reason to kick over to Windows. Linux does need 4DOS or something like it. Gosh, all those Python shells and none are what I want. If it weren’t such a great idea for the ’80’s, I’d get to work on one, finally.

Anyway, VMWare’s “Player” keeps getting worse, version by version. Quite odd, that. Too bad kvm/qemu requires guru training and hours of net study to run.


The joke is on me: Turns out that the old “spring” box is probably just fine. No memory problems after all. Just bad software. My mistake. I bought a machine I did not need.

Signs of the times: When your new PC is a quad core, 3ghz, 8G, 1T box and it’s a “mistake,” you know that CPU and disk are officially plentiful.

So, bottom line: I stayed with Ubuntu. But I swear, if I get sucked in to many more Linux time sinks, that Win7 Terabyte drive that Ubuntu doesn’t see is gonna look real pretty to me.

Costco ZT Affinity AMD Phenom II x4 945 Win7 Home Premium Review

Out of box:

The expectation and included pictures had it that the machine had PS-2 plugs for both mouse and keyboard.

It had one PS-2 plug labeled with a keyboard picture.

The included Microsoft keyboard and mouse were both USB.

Turns out, that’s perfect for me. I could use an extra, junker, USB keyboard for a current project. USB mice are as good as PS-2 mice. After I get the machine set up I’ll use one of the old NMB (AT/PS-2) keyboards. I’ve stopped using the IBM AT boards because programs want F11. And, the AT boards take too much juice to be run from a USB port, powered or not. Anyway, it’s important on a main machine to use a PS-2 keyboard port because of the Control key problems with PS-2/USB keyboards.

The system is a better configuration for me than what I thought I had bought. No negative points.

Let’s fire up Win7…

Win7 comes up asking your country, time, etc. There’s a glitch in the day selector’s display attributes and for some reason the time zone was Pacific but the time was Eastern. No biggy. No points plus or minus.

Norton comes up with a huge buy button labeled “Activate Now” and tiny text link: “Close without enabling security”. Negative points.

After the Norton thing, the UI went to the Control Panel. Since I always set XP systems to Windows Classic, the Win7 Control Panel was unfamiliar. It did not take long to remove Norton. And I spent a couple minutes playing with desktop backgrounds and such. Postitive points.

Played two or three games. The presentation was very good, both audio and visual. Ties to the net were well balanced. The whole “experience” in the game area was smooth, comfortable and pleasant. Many positive points.

Aside from Norton (a program that remains on PCs because the US government IBM-ed Microsoft), the only clutterware on the box was something called “Express Gate”. There was no indication of what it was, though it seemed to want to copy bookmarks from browsers. A quick web search found that it’s ASUS’s quick-OS. It boots Linux from motherboard flash memory in a few seconds when the PC powers on. That makes a PC act like a countertop device, able to hit the web quickly without all the time a full OS needs to start. Negative points for presentation inside Windows. Express Gate is not useful to me as I keep main machines on 24×7. But I know no downside to Express Gate being on the machine.

Express Gate: Must be turned on with an “Enable” buried in the BIOS. So only geeks would know it exists. There really should be something at the Windows level to explain it and to turn it on and off. But, it’s nice. Quick and clean. I didn’t look at it enough to see for sure, but the big gap appears to be no concept of a user. Without a user, the 3 communications pieces (Pidgen, Skype and Firefox) are not integrated and Firefox has no secure password storage. It’s easy to see why there is no integrated user name / password, though: slippery slope and probable customer troubles. They have links for support forums, etc. which I did not explore. The games page had its own feedback thingee. I was impressed by Express Gate. With an integrated, secure password store I can see a consumer PC not being fully booted very often.

Anyway, just to be clear, positive points for lack of clutterware, ZT.

Alerts: Win7’s alerts seem nice enough. Perhaps a bit too quick to go away and I did not see a way to get a history of them. With no Norton, they lead you quickly to IE8 and a Microsoft web page with a large list of anti-virus products. Once IE8 comes up you’re also led quickly and easily in to Windows Update, where the first download seems to be Microsoft’s anti-virus program. The “experience” is not too in-your-face and justified as it will be some time before anti-virus/firewalls disappear in to the fabric of the universe. Slight positive points. YMMV.

A Win7 background picture of note is the startup/shutdown/logon image. Its Rorschach ink blot impression to me is that it covers the human demographic completely. In the South East corner there is a leaf or snowflake or white bird or something appearing out of the glare. I’m thinking, “aromatherapy”. There’s estrogen in the South East, y’all. But, now look at the North West. Jet trails. Why no tiny outline of an F-16, I cannot understand. Anyway, the whole picture is Bauhaus sparse, but weird. Positive points.

Disk organization: It appears they’ve gone Unix-like to put users in their own directories off C:\Users. Positive points. But a hassle for me as the root directory is admin only and I have a lot of system things off root in my standard setup. Turns out, this was not a lot of trouble even for my evolved setup. A couple of environment variables and all the important things went under C:\Users\alex.

“My …” directory names? Negative points. Childish. A single word is good. i.e. Music, Pictures, etc. That keeps the space character out of the directory name, too.

Let’s play “find the IP address” – without cheating and running ipconfig. Or going to the firewall and viewing its table. … … Buried where it’s not too hard to find. But buried. A less buried window that shows “IPv4 Connectivity — Internet” could have included the IP address directly. I’m guessing that anyone who knows what IPv4 is would be able to guess what 192.168.17.100 meant. Negative geek points.

What? Hold on. Let me check the date. 2010. Yep. And Windows dialog boxes are still not expandable? I fuss about Linux not remembering window size and locations. (Yes, “Linux”.) Negative points.

Windows versions: Home Premium (whatever that is) is like XP Home in that it does not remember networked drive connections. The bait and switch is still there. You can tell Windows to store your “credentials”. You can tell Windows to connect the drive when you log in. But Windows doesn’t listen. Negative points. And sloppy.

Negative points that Home Premium does not allow remote desktop. No ssh server either. Hmmm. Can 4DOS do ssh server? No. Cygwin, then. Yuck.

The usual negative points for Microsoft’s money stream of product differentiation. Windows comes in 11-teen confusing versions. You don’t care. You get whatever happens to be pre-installed on the box you buy. But these 11-teen versions remind you that Microsoft is – like any bank, insurance company, telephone company or government – not on your side. Count your fingers, my friend, after you shake these guys’ hands.

All in all. ZT gets a thumbs-up for a clean system. And Win7 gets thumbs-up for the same. Win7 does not scream “DOS 4.0″/”ME”/”Vista”.

Now. The grass sure looks green. Do I go back to Windows from Ubuntu?

Hanns G 28 inch monitor

At Costco.com I got a new Hanns G 28″ LCD monitor to semi-replace the ailing Acer 24″.

The Acer has a very hard time turning on after the PC has gone to screen-saver black. It takes 10-20 minutes and several power cycles to get a flickery image and then another few minutes for the image to settle down. The text mode display seen during BIOS boot never settles down. Vertical flicker.

Anyway, the Hanns is big and cheap (~ $325). As on-line reviews indicate, the default color settings are pretty bad. I don’t mind bright. I want bright. But washed out? No.

I ended up with X-Contrast turned on (turned on after the other settings are made). And user color settings of R:100 G:88 B:67.

The color is still a bit washed, nice and bright, and not too bad, viewed straight on.

It’s the “straight on” part that’s the rub.

This monitor is very sensitive to viewing angle. And, at 28″, unless it’s used as a sit-back monitor for TV, you can see that the color at the top of the monitor is different from the bottom. So, for image editing, I’ll probably move the images over to the Acer for final look-see.

Other thoughts:

It’s nice to have two same-size monitors (1920×1200). And very nice to have a 2nd monitor that isn’t dark, dark, dark.

Together, they push out some heat. Sorta like feeling the sun on your face on a warm day.

Hanns G 28 inch LCD Monitor

What I notice is something made newly illegal

With Google Books it’s easier than ever to read old stuff. Old magazine and newspaper writings give a fascinating perspective on modern times. Just translate the words in to modern syntax and such-like. Viola! You can find the same thing written a hundreds years apart.

http://books.google.com/books?id=OnYKAAAAIAAJ&pg=PA615&source=gbs_selected_pages&cad=4#v=onepage&q=&f=false

The year 1789 was one of stagnation and financial embarrassment in France. The nation had a heavy debt and a serious deficit, and there was scarcity of money and a want of confidence. This was a time of trial and a test of statesmanship. There were those who saw that the evil could only be remedied by patience, careful management, and the strict adherence to established financial principles. But others, as Dr. White says, were “looking about for some short road to prosperity, and ere long the idea was set afloat that the great want of the country was more of the circulating medium; and this was speedily followed by calls for an issue of paper – money.” There was then a struggle. The dangers of such a course were vividly depicted on the one band, and on the other it was maintained that it would be the salvation of France. On the 19th of April, 1790. the finance committee of the French Assembly reported that “the people demand a new circulating medium;” that “the circulation of paper is the best of operations;” that “it is the most free, because it reposes on the will of the people;” that “it will bind the interests of the citizen to the public good.”

The Government had appropriated the vast property of the French Church, amounting in value to about four thousand million francs, and this was to be the security of the paper. Accordingly, in April, 1790, the “Government issued four hundred million francs in assignats — paper – money secured by a pledge of productive real estate, and bearing interest to the holder at three per cent” What could be more secure? It was maintained that such a currency would immediately prove itself better than coin.

“The first result of this issue was apparently all that the most sanguine could desire; the Treasury was at once greatly relieved; a portion of the public debt was paid; creditors were encouraged; credit revived; ordinary expenses were met, and the paper-money having thus been passed from the Government into the midst of the people, trade was revived, and all difficulties seemed past.”

Possibly, if the Government could have stopped with these temporary advantages, no great harm would have been done. But the difficulty about money is, that there is never thought to be enough of it. The benefit of real money (coin) is to set a stubborn limit to this universal want-it cannot be got without earning it or giving equivalent property for it. The curse of pseudo-money (irredeemable paper) is, that it panders to the universal greed because any amount of it can be manufactured and set afloat at any time. And so, of course, the French, after the first taste, wanted more. The further issue was stoutly resisted by the ablest men, but the current set so strong, and the demagogues were so plausible, that the measure was carried, and in September the Government issued eight hundred million assignats, “solemnly declaring that in no case should the entire amount put in circulation exceed twelve hundred millions.”

Great were the rejoicings on every side. Gold was to lose all value, as it was a superfluity, and the nation was committed to the policy of inflation. But the old cry of the “lack of a circulating medium” soon broke forth again. A hundred millions were issued under the plea of a want of small notes. On June 19, 1791, less than nine months after the former great issue, six hundred millions more were put in circulation. Next came depreciation of the currency, a loss of its purchasing power, and a rise in prices. Some said that this was due to ignorance in the rural districts, and the remedy proposed was “education of the people.” M. Prndhomtne’s newspaper, however, declared that “coin will keep rising until the people have hung a broker.” People naturally began to be alarmed, and to convert the paper into coin and hoard it up. This was regarded as criminal, and Marat asserted that death was the proper penalty for persons who then hid their money.

But, after the first stimulus of these issues, business soon became depressed, trade stagnated, the manufactories were closed, and thousands of workmen were discharged. Uncertainty and fluctuation of values followed, speculation set in, and, in the language of Louis Blanc, “commerce was dead; betting took its place.” “In the cities now arose a luxury and license which is a greater evil than the plundering which ministers to it. In the country the gambling spirit spread more and more; nor was this reckless and corrupt spirit confined to business-men; it began to break out in official circles; and public men who, a few years before, had been pure in motive, and above all probability of taint, became luxurious, reckless, cynical, and finally corrupt. . . . “Even worse than this was the breaking down of morals in the country at large, resulting from the sudden building up of ostentations wealth in a few large cities, and the gambling, speculative spirit fostered in the small towns and rural districts.”

There was no stopping now. The artificial quickening had gradually run into a feverish activity, followed by intoxication, which had grown into a regular national debauch. Every issue of paper – money had made matters worse. But so deep was the infatuation that multitudes of people insisted that if there were only enough paper – money all would be well. On December 17, 1791, a new issue was ordered of three hundred millions more, and on April 80, 1792, still another three hundred millions were thrown out. The currency was now depreciated thirty per cent, and in July of the same year another three hundred millions were emitted.” Issue after issue followed at intervals of a few months until, on December 14, 1792, we have an official statement that thirty-four hundred millions had been put forth, of which six hundred millions had been burned, leaving in circulation twenty-eight hundred millions.”

As articles of common consumption grew enormously dear, their holders became unwilling to sell them for the worthless currency with which France was flooded, and there then arose a demand that those who refused to make such exchanges should be punished with death. Laws were passed making the sales of goods compulsory at fixed prices in paper-money, which were, of course, inoperative. In 1793 there was an enactment forbidding the sale or exchange of specie for more than its nominal value in paper, under a penalty of six years’ imprisonment in irons; and then twelve hundred millions more of the inflated currency was thrown out. “Toward the end of 1794 seven thousand million assignats were in circulation. By the end of May, 1795, the circulation was increased to ten thousand millions; at the end of June, to fourteen thousand millions; at the end of July, to sixteen thousand millions; and the value of one hundred francs in paper fell steadily first to four francs in gold, then to three, then to two and a half.” The issues continued until, at the beginning of 1796, they amounted to over forty-five thousand million francs. One franc in gold was worth two hundred and eighty eight francs in paper-money; sugar was five hundred francs a pound, and carriage-hire six thousand francs a day in the legal currency. Debts were, of course, now easily paid.

The madness continued, but its form was diversified. In 1796 “it was decreed that no more assignats be issued ; instead of them it was decreed that a new paper-money, ‘fully secured and as good as gold’ be issued, under the name of ‘mandats.'” Choice public real estate was set apart to secure this money, but it speedily depreciated ninety-five per cent. It was decreed that those who refused to take it should be fined and sent to prison, and that those who even spoke against it should incur the same penalties. But the end at last came. On July 16, 1796, “it was decreed that all paper, mandats and assignats, should be taken at its real value, and that bargains might be made in whatever currency the people chose. The reign of paper-money in France was over. The twenty-five hundred million mandats went into the common heap of refuse with the previous thirty-six billion assignats. The whole vast issue was repudiated. The collapse had come at last; the whole nation was plunged into financial distress and debauchery from one end to the other.”

Bad MP3 player

Sometimes you can buy a cheap, white-box device and find it’s better than the brand name item.

On the other hand, sometimes you can buy a Sly Electronics SL014G MP3 player.

That dies a few days after the 90-day warranty runs out.

That has an extensive, useless UI crammed in to a micro-sized screen – but no shuffle function.

Whose battery doesn’t last long.

That forgets where it is in the playlist whenever it’s plugged in to a USB power source. Or something.

That, perhaps like all non-Sony devices, takes a loooong time to skip to the next song.

Oh well. Better luck next time.

Your Government Failed You

Listened to the CD of Richard A. Clarke’s “Your Government Failed You” a couple weeks ago.

Figured it would be a tedious screed about Iraq. But what the heck. As a guy who’s always been 51/49 or 49/51 on American 200x Iraq involvement, I could at least hear it out.

Turns out that he’d already put his Iraq thoughts in an earlier book. Yes, this one had a lot on Iraq, but he used it as a springboard to what he considered more important things: how to organize certain national security functions of the US government.

Bottom line: He came across as exactly what he said he was: A self-respecting, professional, government guy specializing in national security. That his specialty is the core purpose of the federal government helped make the book quite readable. And he spelled out the case for his kind of person having great control over national security policy and procedures. He went a bit schizo when acknowledging that the professionals’ job is to implement the political policy makers’ policies – at the same time being driven, himself, by being in strong, strong disagreement with the Bush peoples’ particular policies. But, there’s never a perfect balance in things of that sort. So whaddayagunnado?

For me, all that was not the most interesting thing in the book.

Let’s go back to Saigon, ’70. My bicycle had worn out break pads. No problem. I had walked most every street of that town, taking pictures, so I knew where the bike shops were. Zinged over there. Walked in the first shop and asked how much brake pads were. Got a price. Har. Har. Well, of course, it must have been 10 times what it should be. Right? No problem. I go to the next shop. Same price. Hmmm. That’s odd. Prices from tourist-rip-off people are generally all over the map. Third shop. Same price.

What I learned: Around a military base, you’ll find a whole crowd of people whose every moment is spent, as a cell phone company exec once said in a meeting, “Extracting value from the customer.” In other words, bases are surrounded by con artists, crooks, etc.

But, in those bicycle shops I was not near the base. These shops were run as normal businesses for normal people. They had no thought or inclination to pull any scams. That I was not their ordinary customer didn’t change a thing.

The thing is, the interface between the base, with its transient, military people, and the surrounding people “servicing” that base is like the shore ‘tween land and sea.

Now, in the world I live in, the shore is where everything important happens. Innovation happens on the shore.

Back to Clarke’s book.

The book dripped with disdain and suspicion for private contractors involved with national security. And tech. That attitude was very, very nearly the attitude of any aware military person toward the scammers just outside the base. And, that attitude was clearly a result of Clarke’s experience! In other words, it was not out of line.

Now, here I am, on the other side of the fence, with much the same attitude toward professional government people.

But, though I disagreed with some of what Clarke recommended, I never doubted that he could be right and that his heart is in the right place. He came across as a guy running a bicycle shop.

So, is it a law of nature that the worst sort of behavior is concentrated at the interface between two different worlds? Does the nature of such interfaces require that behavior be “bad”?

Free of the compulsion to go to the top of the hill

Today, I stopped half way up the Mt. Si haystack. After walking all the way up the better Mt. Si trail – from Little Si.

And, it was not agony to turn around!

Why?

Sure, I’ve been to that top before.

Sure, there’s really nothing to see there that can’t be seen from below.

Sure, the sun was going down and I knew that there was a 100% chance I’d be crawling down the thing in the dark if I went the last 100+ feet.

Sure, I gotta remember to take not 1, but 2 extra shirts on hikes now.

Sure, I didn’t have a coin to put there.

But none of that counts.

I felt freedom.

ID and Health Information

I asked whether the dentist’s x-ray machine could provide digital images.

“No. Such machines are very expensive.”

So I kicked the camera in to macro mode and shot images of the images. Here’s one.

X-rays of teeth

Now, when I’m in a plane crash, my body can be identified.


I like to get images from medical places – images of the retina from the optical guys, for instance.

The dentist tracks these x-rays in pairs over time. The same thing can be done with other images. I want to do so, myself.

Digitizing health information is a hot subject now. Oddly enough, the restrictions medical machines live under discourage such actions. It’s a whole ‘nother level of engineering to hook a medical machine to the net.

That’s frustrating.

If you are building a medical machine, why not make it able to spin out its data in real time so that a remote expert can help with evaluations? Or so that someone who cares about the patient can keep track of what’s happening in real time from a distance? Or so that a database of real experience can be automatically built from all uses of a machine?

Images like this raise other questions. Why should every dental office in the country have x-ray machines? Why can’t you buzz in to an x-ray office and simply get the images? Specialized x-ray offices would shoot higher quality images. And cheaper. Heck, in the case of teeth, it would make a lot of sense for software to evaluate the shots and annotate them for the dentist and patient. That wouldn’t stop the dentist from doing his own evaluation. But, we sure know how such a facility would play out in the political world. If most people paid their own dental bills, as I do, such businesses would have been around a long time ago.

But, for now, I side with the idea that digitizing and collecting health information should be done by the owner/patient. Let the systems to enable such collections be built from the bottom, up – need and interest driven – rather than from the top, down.

How to calculate the truth

Through Fark I saw this article: The Myth of 90 Percent: Only a Small Fraction of Guns in Mexico Come From U.S.

The sum of the article is that there have apparently been lots of media stories saying that 90% of the drug war guns in Mexico come from the U.S. But the article claims that the 90% number is bogus and should be 17%.

Let’s run with that.

You can calculate the 17% pretty accurately by noting that if there’s a repeated, repeated, repeated number under-pinning a story, story, story that matches the media’s core beliefs, then you must multiply the number by the 80% chance that the number is BS, that is, a 20% chance the number is accurate.

90% * .20 = 18%

Which is pretty close to 17%, is it not?

This method of calculating the truth says that Madoff swindled not 60 billion, but 12 billion.

QED.