Dreams

I woke up to a disturbing dream the other day. It made me think again about how our days are colored by our dreams – affected more than is anywhere mentioned by adults. Yes, we know that kids can have bad dreams and, because young kids’ dream worlds are so mixed with the real world, we know how much the two worlds influence each other. But we think we “grow out” if such things.

I doubt it.

I’ve woken up laughing from hilarious dreams a couple times over the last year. And, golly, the day sure felt better for such a good start. Oddly enough, one of the dreams was of an airplane spiraling to the earth. What was belly laughable about that escapes me just now, but … well, you had to be there. Anyway, it could have been a simple flying dream and the airplane was doing aerobatics – wonderful, funny, surprising aerobatics.

So, how do you encourage happy dreams, fun dreams, warm dreams?

The personal device connectivity dam

Verizon is talking about opening up their network to phones not sold through Verizon. Is this the start of something big?

Well, that question leads to this long ramble on the sorry state of personal device connectivity.

First, let’s do the overview:

Personal devices follow PCs by 10 to 12 years. That is, when you whip your phone out of your pocket, you are grabbing a 12 year old PC – adjusting for form factor changes and such.

We can expect what happened a decade ago in the PC world to happen in the personal device world today.

So, what happened 10 to 12 years ago in the PC world?

Easy question. Win95 came out! A working, widely used, multi-tasking OS for PCs. Oh. And the Internet. But, hey, finally, after all these years, on an obscure blog, Win95 gets credit for being the enabler of the “Internet” as it’s thought of today.

Back to personal devices and Verizon.

There are plenty of calls for a CarterPhone decision for the cellular industry. Is the Verizon announcement a step toward the same end goal?

Yep. But, it’s a phone company step. The devil’s in the details. Apparently, the device/phone maker must get the device qualified by Verizon. That could be a step similar to that which land line phone devices must take. (They need FCC clearance.) Of course, that you, the phone maker, need to get the approval stamp from Verizon implies you need the same stamp from N other phone companies. Not gonna happen, folks.

Oh well. Anyway, the Verizon announcement can be cheered as a crack in the wall.

We’ll see the herd of carriers respond. Expect a variant of the Verizon announcement from the GSM guys. If the carriers get in a downhill snowball rolling contest, then things could get exciting. For starters, the GSM guys could, for instance, band together with a single point of device validation and skip individual carrier validation.

BTW, let’s look at CarterPhone a bit.

Before CarterPhone, two things were true:

  1. You could not hook a non-Bell phone to the network.
  2. You paid for each extension phone you got from Bell.

Usually, when people think of CarterPhone, they think of thing 1.

Consider, though, thing 2 in a cell phone world.

What if you could run 6 cell “phones” on the same account at the same time? Sure, thing 1 would be true, too. That is, you could get these phones from anywhere. But the interesting thing is thing 2.

Now think about the Amazon Kindle.

Never mind its misfortune of having no market (as the gadget geeks’ $400 bills are all going to iPhones at this time).

Never mind its misfortune of not being available for evaluation. (Do you see them at Frys and CompUSA?)

What’s interesting about the Kindle in the context of the Verizon announcement is this: what we’ll be seeing when the dam finally breaks on device connectivity are a lot of “extension phones” – that are not “phones” at all!

Forget thing 1: being able to buy a phone from someone other than your carrier. If you use a GSM carrier (e.g. in the US, not Sprint or Verizon), you’ve had that ability for a long time (except, of course, that you must still buy a phone from the carrier on easy, monthly installment payments – whether you get an actual phone for your payments or not).

What you’re seeing with the Kindle is yet another odd-ball device that can really leverage ubiquitous connectivity. Once the dam breaks, you’ll soon be carrying several of these devices. And your exoskeleton (a.k.a. your “car”, “automobile”, “wheels”) is sure to sport a gob of such devices. Remember that the limiting factor on personal devices is power. Your exoskeleton has unlimited power available all the time, relatively speaking.

Which gets to: why do exoskeletons not provide a device platform? Odd, that. The manufacturers even pay Apple to connect to iPods! The car guys of the year 1910 must be spinning in their graves.

Internet oddity

Have you ever noticed that Google has skipped a UI beat in Google Maps and Google Earth?

Try entering a latitude / longitude value to either.

Unless you get it exactly right, both systems fuss and stonewall.

Why?

Is there some silly patent out there?

Anyway, it turns out that parsing lat/lon gets dirty fast. Sort of like parsing arbitrary time/dates.

Here’s a shot: /cgi-bin/latlon_cgi.py.

Har, har. Should someone write a GreaseMonkey script to “fix” input to Google Maps with an XMLHttpRequest? That would be keeping in the Web 2.0 river.

Washington DC

We had good luck with the weather in DC. It was hot but not stifling.

The camera partially croaked so almost all outdoor pictures were badly exposed. Bad timing, that.

It’s been a long time since I’ve been in DC. It seems like each time yields a couple of distinct moments. And they are always unexpected.

For instance, I remember from the first visit as a teen the wow feeling when standing inches from unrecognizable brush strokes of a famous painting. And I remember Eric and I running up and down the Washington Monument.

The last time there left only the memory of how poorly signed the roads and streets were. To be fair, a lot of roads were being worked on at the time.

This time around it was an amusement park ride and two memorials that hit the spot.

The ride was in the Air and Space Museum. Heather and I went on one of the flight simulator-ish things. The idea is you’re flying a fighter jet of some sort. The machine has a target you can shoot at. Oddly enough, we scored no kills (enemy kills, that is) with our full-speed, tree-top barrel rolls.

The plan for the last day in DC was to wander on down to the Lincoln Memorial. But I’ve seen it. Nothing new there, right? And, the big-deal, tourist things in DC had already given me a feeling of stand-off aloofness. The feeling was enhanced by people in the hotel elevators polishing their pitches for largess from the Royal Court government.

Right.

Ah, but this was enough to make the last day’s walk worthwhile:

Abe Lincoln - taking a break from skateboarding?

Toss in the 2nd inaugural address etched in the wall of the memorial. Here, we have a major presidential speech given in the middle of the Civil War and it’s shorter than current politicians introducing public relations photo-ops. Bobby and Mr. Carpenter seemed quite nearby.

Then there was the Korean War Memorial. What was the deal? Someone screaming how much he hated the US side of the war? This thing was truly baffling.

Every figure seemed dejected. Zombie sad sacks. Defeated.

Korean War Memorial zombies

And no wonder:

Shoot the sculptor, not your buddy!

All in all, though, it was a good trip. The wedding was great. Fascinating on many levels. Visiting David was also great: Terabyte data sets that are more complex politically than technically. Egad.

We really should have hit the road with the kids when they were younger.

Squished Glasses found. Now all we need is a free country.

Those glasses that disappeared on the logging road were found. Not by me. I walked past them twice and didn’t see ’em the third chance, even. But a woman waiting for her husband said she had seen some broken glasses near the car.

We looked about a quarter mile down the road.

Apparently, the woman, her husband, I, and 1 ATV had been on the road in the previous 24 hours. The ATV did not miss the glasses.

The frames were pretty flattened. The lenses were laying apart in the rocky mud.

I wiped the lenses. A little ding in one was all the damage. But, then poly-carb lenses are the only way to fly.

The frames? Well, that’s what’s amazing. They were flat. Later, at home, I figured what’s the harm in trying to bend them back in shape. They did! The lenses are now a bit off kilter in the frames. The frames are still a little twisted and oddly shaped. On the whole, not quite good enough. But usable in a pinch.

Which got me to pinch-land.

The glasses didn’t come from Costco. They were insurance fluff from a regular eye doctor’s office. So there was no way I was going to get a dupe of the frames to drop the lenses in to. Well do I remember back when vision insurance started “covering” glasses. Oddly enough, the price of glasses went up at the time (for me anyway) by exactly how much insurance covered.

So I went to Costco to order some lenses to fit one of my many old frames (Costco, $60. Lenscrafters, $255.)

Experience has taught me to keep my current eye script on my Palm. Guess what? “In this state we can’t make lenses without a signed prescription.”

Huh? I can’t get glasses without doing some kind of Bulgarian Post Office thing (stand in 6 different lines to mail a letter)?

It’s not hard to imagine how such a disgusting law got passed.

Back when I was young there was much discussion of “socialized medicine” (what the AMA called a proposed government medical system to make it sound as bad as possible). The AMA was really, really intent on not having the government get in to medicine. They were, even then, a closed guild and wanted the organization that protected the guild to butt out – of everything but protecting the guild.

Time went by and, as so many other groups have found, the AMA, et al, found that there are some good points to having a central system enforce consumption of product from one vendor. All to protect the consumer, mind you. Having your own army, paid for by someone else, can sure beef up the bottom line. But, anyway, at least they have a product! One can probably think of some tax supported entities without a product at all.

Whatever. My mind went back to when I had to get glasses made in a hurry while in some odd place where no one in the country had a head shaped and sized like mine. Apparently, that was a free country, where ever it was.

I Went Bush Climbing

Bush climbing, not rock climbing. The latter’s never gonna happen, what with the volleyball knee and all.

What’s “bush climbing?”

Imagine a hill without a trail.

A steep hill.

With bushes.

And little trees and such.

Well, if you are a couple weeks from limping around and thinking you’ll never walk right again, and if you’re the kind of person who can’t seem to stay on a trail, and if you spy what must be a shortcut to who knows where, and if you’re at the end of some side road up some hill, but don’t want to just wander on down and find somewhere else to go, what do you do?

You look up the hill, pretend that there are some clear spots in the foliage you can get through, pretend that the hill isn’t that steep, and you head on up.

And, after you’ve crawled up this thing by hauling yourself up grabbing huckleberry bushes, little Doug Firs, Cedars, and Vine Maples – yes, you too can dangle from some precipice, swinging your feet around looking for a place to put ’em while smiling encouragingly at the two huckleberries you’ve got your death grip on – then you can notice that the sun’s dropping behind McClellan Butte and you’re not in good shape.

Now what?

GPS to the rescue!

Well, anyway, even if it’s not really needed, I thought it would be fun to push the technology, sorta.

Called kids one by one. Scott called back ‘tween calls.

Me, “You at a machine?”

Scott, “Ha, ha. No!”

Me, “Ah, foo. I’m up a hill and want someone to find a logging road nearby for me.”

Scott, “I’ll check with Mike.”

Ring. Mike. In Boulder, CO, it turns out.

Back and forth, story and such.

Google maps.

Problem one: Google maps is unaccountably picky about how they take lat/lon. Order dependent. And they appear to take only a couple of exactly perfect formats. Takes a while to get straight. I’m kinda whacked so I don’t suggest a converter (as I know GM takes straight LA.decimal, LON.decimal. The GH615 shows DD.MM.thou format.). But, Mike figures it out.

Problem two: Mike says there’s a road north of me (where I came from) 400 yards. I’m thinking that’s a bit too near, but that 400 yards are horizontal yards, so maybe. Bothers me that at one time at the highest point I got to I can easily see 100 yards to the north. And that distance seems a small fraction of the horizontal distance I’ve covered.

Anyway, apparently, I must have either said the numbers wrong (by far the most likely possibility) or whatever format Mike found transformed ’em. Cause after I got back and generated this:

up_some_hill_to_east_of_mt_washington_01.kmz

which is too big for Google Maps, but shows this in Google Earth:

Google Earch snapshot of GPS track

it was clear that something went amiss. On the way back down I checked with Mike a couple times to see if I was, according to Google Earth, headed for the road. (I went to the east to miss the rock climbing part of the up-trip.)

Mike: “I have good news and bad news. The good news is you’re really moving. The bad news is you already crossed the road.”

New tech in action, folks. It’ll work better next time. I’ll try it tomorrow. I gotta go back there to find my glasses which I hope are along the no-vehicle road.

Good part, though, is that the advice from BCCC (Bush Climbing Central Control) – in Boulder, no less – take that NORAD – was accurate. If I’d continued south on the ridge I was on, I’d have ended up in Oregon, not at a convenient logging road, navigable at night with the flashlight.

At home, Google Earth did find a logging road south of where I had been. Close examination showed it to be at the bottom of a vertical drop of some distance. Going back the way I came (well, sorta), was the thing to do.

All in all, a very satisfying day.

Harry Potter – the new Star Trek

It occurs to me that Harry Potter will drive a future generation’s idea of where tech should go. Kinda like Star Trek has driven so much over the last 40 years.

Consider spells. They are rather like the search engine query interface. A few simple words and … magic.

But consider the problem from the spell’s point of view. The spell needs quite a lot of processing power. If your spell is to “freeze” something, do you mean the virus 1 meter in front of you? Or, do you mean your friend very near the general direction your wand is pointing? What’s the spell’s target and intention?

And consider the wand. Its purpose, apparently, is the help the spell figure out your intention. Is a wand the best thing to use?

Pointing works very, very well to indicate many things. But what if the “thing” is not a physical thing in space? What if you want to freeze a discussion? “Everyone stop talking for a moment” (everyone being, presumably, slaves – robots – machines). Let’s say you have a half dozen home-building machines sawing and hammering away on the new house. Pointing the wand and saying “freezzzaaam” is really, really ambiguous. Maybe you mean that the place in the house you’re pointing at is “just right”. But maybe you want all of the robots to stop working and take a lunch break or something. Or maybe they are all sorta working at cross purposes and need to stop and take a breath. Or maybe you’re putting another robot in the group and the others need to stop for a moment to regroup.

If things work out the way they apparently will, such things will be important problems to solve.

Consider, for instance, this simple example: Garbage trucks.

How do they work? Let’s assume low tech here. Nothing fancy.

The garbage guy is in a nice, comfortable cab, monitoring what’s happening with his truck. Maybe he takes the wheel in locations that are not handled by the auto-driver – like running through town to the freeway back to the dump, for instance. But, the truck does all the work while slowly prowling up and down the residential streets, flipping garbage cans’ contents in to the truck. The arm that grabs the cans can see the cans, grab ’em, empty ’em, and put ’em back on the curb. Not a big deal. Especially late at night or early in the morning. Slowly driving the truck down these streets really amounts to dodging any kids there may be. Late night, early morning hours makes that job pretty easy, too.

So the operator, the garbage man, is a monitor, a watchman. He may occasionally need to get out to unjam something. But on the other hand, he’s more like the brakeman on a train, isn’t he?

Which puts him back at the shop rather than in the cab. He’s monitoring a dozen trucks. When he has a problem with more than one at one time he simply stops the others while each problem is dealt with. Freezing a bunch of trucks is troublesome in traffic but not on the garbage-can streets.

So, when the trucks need to go in traffic, do they flock together?

Anyway, what’s this guy in the shop going to point his wand at?

First Impressions of GPS

If history is any indication, the cell phone carriers will keep fumbling their location capabilities, so GPS just hasn’t hit the big time yet. Packages like this GH615 GPS watch could make a dent in things. Given the sub-$10 price of GPS chips, there’s a lot of room for interesting things underneath the mondo, expensive vehicle stuff that’s going out the door now. Oh well.

What I’ve found is that GPS is not as accurate as one would like. Tracks in the city, but not in city-canyons, look like this image from Seattle’s international district:

GPS track in Chinatown

The wandering lines are when I was walking. Stand in one place and there are lots of random squiggles. Stop at a light: squiggles.

It’s funny how the lines can have you on the correct side of the road, going and coming. But they go all fuzzy when you’re walking around. I figure the bigger the highway, the broader the sky view. Walking, you usually have some obstruction nearby, solidly blocking at least direction.

Trees are a major obstruction in this neck of the woods. Tracks from the driveway are regularly separated by 60 feet, north/south. The driveway runs east/west for about 400 feet and is not 60 feet wide. But then, the driveway has no clear view of the sky except straight up and some obstructed views east and west. Hard to triangulate given that narrow an angle to work with.

Let’s mention the feeling you get when you see a track on Google Maps or Earth (or whatever). Fascinating. Consider this snippet:

GPS track inside Issaquah Costco

Unlike the Issaquah Safeway, which appears to be GPS shielded, the track inside Costco does a cartoonish, but reasonable rendition of the track I took inside the store that day! Is that the effect of the skylights in the store?

Back in the mid/late ’80s, when I calculated that it would cost $3 a day to video record everything you did, 24/7, it’s been intriguing to consider the implications of such recordings.

Here’s one that these GPS tracks brings to mind: They bring the past to mind. Note that there are two squigglies in the street as I was going in to Costco. Yeah. There was a long line of cars turning left, so I had to wait once way back and wait again ’cause the light turned before I could make the turn. Now, being reminded of that day-to-day, background item is not important, but consider how such reminders can trigger the brain to remember more important things. Or, consider how such small things can simply take you back to the past.

Or take another angle: An Issaquah traffic engineer might find information in a gob of GPS squigglies from his turf. One must presume that the traffic guys find the Metro/Seattle bus tracking interesting. Speaking of which: that screen shot was done deep in to a Friday night. What’s with the two buses on an off-street?

Hmmm. Cut. Cut. Cut. Thinking for this blog entry is veering in to product idea land. So it’s time to break off and go to B2.

I blame global warming

Google Earth sees the future through true-believer eyes:

Hillsboro Ohio in the far east


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Someone geocoded a bunch of Ohio towns with positive longitude values.

CEO Pay

CEO compensation has been a contentious issue for some years now. Plenty of non-CEOs think it’s too high, or too high relative to “normal” people. And plenty of people think that many CEOs are taking advantage of their positions to, how shall we say it, extract more value from the company and stockholders than is their due. And plenty of people think it’s too high and a symptom of a general out-of-control corporate governance situation in the US.

Between the commsymps on one pole and the “So what? It’s a free market and if it takes big money to find the right guy, who are you to argue?” crowd on the other, there may be a middle ground.

But I don’t care, for the moment.

Instead, it seemed like fun to find out what the correlation is between CEO pay and, oh, let’s just take a random measure of CEO performance: stock appreciation.

Now, there are probably very accurate ways to do this sort of thing, but I chose the quick way:

Snag the CEO pay numbers from the AFL-CIO web site.

Match ’em up with the stock performance for the last 3 years (as told by Yahoo Finance).

Viola!

OK. There are a lot of things wrong with this. For example:

  • Can you believe that the AFL-CIO site may have an axe to grind? Well, duh. But, I figure that they’ll grind their axe for all of the companies they list in pretty much the same way.
  • What if the CEO has just come on board? That makes the stock history irrelevant. Maybe. But, I figure there won’t be that many new CEOs to fudge the numbers.
  • CEO pay is notoriously jagged. Think entertainer income. One year it’s big, the next, it’s zero. Straight-faced people call this “risky”. But then, staight-faced people confuse stock market “beta” with risk, too. Anyway, yeah, using 1 year of CEO numbers is going to include a lot of noise. But, I figure the noise won’t cancel the signal for over 1300 CEOs.
  • What about dividends? I’m assuming that they, too, don’t have a lot of effect on correlation. With 1300 companies, you gotta figure that dividends will just shift some of the dots in the scatter plots below slightly to the right.

OK, where does all this lead to?

Well, the correlation between CEO pay and stock appreciation for the last 3 years is … the envelope please:

0.0281944460185

Hmmm.

This is about as uncorrelated as you can get. Zero, if you drop the 100ths. And that’s for 1323 CEOs “raking in” anywhere from 1 buck (Steve Job’s phony number) and 131 mill (Ouch. I owned some HD stock.)

Did outliers trash the correlation?

Let’s look at the pictures:

First, here is the scatter plot:

All CEO Pay-to-Stock-Performance

The outliers do make it hard to see the crowd.

Let’s zoom in a bit:

Most CEO Pay-to-Stock-Performance

I don’t see the ramp of dots leading from southwest to northeast that would be seen if the big pay and big return guys were the same guys. From this image, though, you can see that the market has gone up in the last 3 years. The center of the dots eyeball to be about 0.4 in X. That’s another way of saying that stocks have gone up 40%. (The actual calculation here is (current_price – old_price) / current_price.)

Finally, let’s clip out all but the bulk of ’em.

Normal CEO Pay-to-Stock-Performance

What can be said? The 0.03 correlation sums it up very well.

So, does that mean the a company can can their CEO and hire a Magic 8 Ball? Well, sure. They can. But do they want to?

It’s too bad that these numbers don’t answer the question.

Remember that there are no comparisons in these numbers to companies that have a Magic 8 Ball for CEO.

But, certainly these numbers make one wonder about the possibility of automating the CEO’s job. Heck, it’s hard to automate jobs that can be easily measured. Think of how easy it would be to automate a job with no solid feedback.

Finally, let’s open up another curtain.

Remember that if stock prices followed CEO pay, the prices would adjust to make the CEO’s pay uncorrelated to stock performance. Assuming that’s true changes little, tough, because this total lack of correlation between pay and what the stock has already done does lead to one simple question:

What are CEOs paid for?

It’s sure not for stock performance.